I recently wrote: “How much harm Ockham’s razor has done.” It was, clearly, a provocation. The famous razor reminds us that, when faced with several possible explanations, it makes sense to start with the simplest one.
The problem arises when we confuse the simplest explanation with reality. I later came across Hickam’s dictum, developed in medicine as a counterpoint to Ockham. Its premise is simple: a patient can have several illnesses at the same time. Not every symptom must stem from a single cause. And I immediately thought of business.
A company’s sales begin to decline and an explanation quickly emerges: “The problem is the sales team.”
- It could be.
But there may also be a poorly positioned product, incorrect pricing, inadequate follow-up, poorly designed processes, or a strategy that no longer works. And, more uncomfortably, several of those factors may be occurring at once. That is where Hickam comes in.
Not to tell us that everything is complex, but to remind us that a problem can have several simultaneous causes. The same is true outside the business world. Sometimes we interpret a reaction, a silence, or a change in behavior by looking for a single explanation.
“They’ve changed with me.”
- Perhaps.
But people do not live in isolated compartments. Work affects our personal lives, concerns shape our decisions, and circumstances alter our responses. Sometimes there is no single reason. Several factors build up, intertwine, and ultimately produce an outcome that, from the outside, appears far simpler than it really is. And here it is worth drawing an important distinction:
Understanding the causes of behavior does not necessarily mean justifying it. Understanding and justifying are different things. So too are explaining a problem and solving it.
Perhaps, then, Ockham and Hickam are not enemies. Ockham helps us avoid making things unnecessarily complicated. Hickam reminds us not to oversimplify them either. Between the two lies a highly useful way of looking at business and life: start with the simplest explanation, determine whether it truly explains what is happening and, when it leaves out important elements, continue refining the analysis.
Because often the initial diagnosis is not wrong. It is simply incomplete. And managing well—whether a company or our own lives—requires understanding what combination of people, decisions, and circumstances has produced the outcome before us. Then comes the hard part: deciding what to do with what we have understood. Because understanding does not absolve us of making a decision.
Simplifying helps us think. Oversimplifying leads us astray.
Alejandro Hijar
