Colombia is preparing for a change in direction. The victory of Abelardo de la Espriella in the presidential elections marks the beginning of a new political era following four years of Gustavo Petro’s government and signals, above all, a much closer relationship with the United States.
This change is significant. Colombia has been one of Washington’s primary allies in Latin America for decades, but Petro’s presidency and Donald Trump’s return to the White House led to numerous disagreements between the two governments.
Now the landscape could be very different. De la Espriella, who also holds U.S. citizenship, has publicly expressed his admiration for Trump and shares a much tougher perspective with his administration on issues such as drug trafficking, crime, and security.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was among the first international leaders to congratulate the election winner and expressed Washington’s willingness to strengthen cooperation with the upcoming Colombian government.
Security returns to the center of debate
A significant portion of Colombian political change can be understood by looking inward. The expansion of armed groups remains one of the country’s primary challenges. According to data collected by BBC Mundo, these organizations currently have more than 27,000 members, approximately double the number from five years ago.
Drug trafficking, coca cultivation, and violence continue to pose serious problems in multiple regions.
Petro attempted to address this reality through his «total peace» policy, which prioritized negotiations with various armed actors. De la Espriella proposes to take almost the opposite approach: strengthening the Armed Forces, increasing military spending, and toughening the response to criminal organizations.
The next president has even suggested the possibility of launching a kind of «Plan Colombia 2.0,» referring to the cooperation program between Bogotá and Washington developed at the beginning of this century.
However, historical experience reveals the complexity of the issue. Military pressure helped to weaken the FARC and subsequently facilitated the negotiation process that culminated in the peace agreement, but those policies were also accompanied by severe episodes of violence and the strengthening of paramilitary structures.
A new ally for Trump in Latin America
The Colombian change also has consequences that extend far beyond its borders. The Trump administration is refocusing its attention on Latin America, particularly concerning drug trafficking, migration, and security.
A Colombian government aligned with this strategy could alter regional balances. During Petro’s presidency, Bogotá maintained significant differences with Washington. With De la Espriella, Colombia may again become one of Washington’s closest political and strategic allies in South America.
The challenge will be to determine how far this collaboration can extend. Political proximity does not necessarily mean that the interests of Washington and Bogotá will always align. Colombia will need to manage its own security and development challenges while the United States pursues a regional agenda marked by its priorities in immigration, drug trafficking, and the fight against organized crime.
China enters the equation
Additionally, a third player makes the relationship between Colombia and the United States significantly more complex: China. As has occurred in other Latin American countries, Colombia has strengthened its economic ties with Beijing over the past few years.
China is already competing with the United States to become Colombia’s main trading partner, and its investment capacity has significantly increased its presence in Latin America.
This rapprochement may become one of the new Colombian government’s first international dilemmas. Greater political alignment with Washington could bring pressures to reduce certain ties with China. However, doing so will not be easy. The commercial relationships, investments, and economic interests built up over the past years make Beijing a difficult player to ignore.
Colombia will thus have to navigate between the two major powers while trying to preserve its own interests.
A divided country facing a new chapter
The electoral outcome also illustrates how deeply divided Colombia is as it transitions into this political phase. Nearly 13 million Colombians supported De la Espriella, compared to 12.7 million who voted for Iván Cepeda, a candidate linked to Petroism, according to the preliminary count reported by BBC Mundo.
A narrow margin that foreshadows a legislative period marked by strong political and social opposition. The president-elect himself moderated his tone after his victory was announced and pledged to govern for all Colombians. He will now have to translate that commitment into action in a country that continues to grapple with deep inequalities, illicit economies, violence, and limited state presence in certain areas.
These are issues Colombia has faced for decades, and no government has fully resolved them while alternating between negotiation policies and hardline strategies.
De la Espriella will take office promising a new direction. His major challenge will be to demonstrate that closeness to Washington and a toughened security policy can also lead to stability, development, and opportunities for a country still seeking to definitively heal the wounds of its long-standing conflict.
