Aragon’s economy maintained 2.2% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026, supported by domestic demand and a labor market that once again reached record highs. Growth remained below the national rate for Spain but clearly outpaced the eurozone average amid an uncertain international environment.
Aragon outpaces the eurozone despite the global slowdown
Aragon’s GDP increased by 2.2% year on year between April and June 2026, compared with 2.6% in Spain and 1.2% in the Economic and Monetary Union. The regional economy thus extended its expansion after Aragon’s GDP grew by 3% in 2025.
Strong domestic demand and labor market performance are supporting activity in both Aragon and Spain as a whole. Partial indicators available for the third quarter suggest that the economy remains resilient, although they point to mixed signals in a slowing environment.
The external environment continues to present several sources of risk. The global economy slowed during the first half of 2026, although it withstood the energy supply disruption linked to the situation in the Middle East. Uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical conflicts continue to weigh on the short-term outlook.
Employment reaches record highs as inflation rises on energy costs
The labor market kept pace with output growth during the spring. Employment rose 3.1% year on year in Aragon, above the national rate of 2.3%, while both the labor force and the number of people employed reached record highs.
Aragon’s unemployment rate stood at 8.2% of the labor force, compared with 9.9% for Spain. The figures reinforce employment’s role in supporting domestic demand at a time of weaker international momentum.
Price growth accelerated in the second quarter due to energy costs. Headline inflation reached 3.1% year on year in Aragon and 3.2% in Spain, while core inflation remained more contained at 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively.
OECD raises its global forecast for 2026 as AI-related financial risks grow
At the end of September, the OECD raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 by one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.9%, while cutting its 2027 estimate by one-tenth of a point to 3%. It also raised its inflation forecasts to 4.1% for 2026 and 3.6% for 2027.
The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, reflecting conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, trade disputes, rising sovereign bond yields, and the potential effects of El Niño on commodities and food prices.
The expansion of investment in Artificial Intelligence has emerged as one of the drivers of global growth, although its increasing reliance on debt financing adds financial vulnerability should expected returns fail to materialize. The analysis also highlights the need to strengthen the governance and regulation of this technology.
The Quarterly Economic Outlook Bulletin is complemented by the Aragon Economic Notes, which cover an update of the county-level Gross Value Added series for 2013-2024, the 10th anniversary of Brexit, and the importance of overnight stays in non-hotel accommodation.
