EY projects electric growth of 105% by 2035 and greater investment in networks
EY, in collaboration with the Technological Research Institute (IIT), presented the report Electricity Demand and Investments in the Network 2025 – 2035 on September 26, 2025. The study forecasts a significant increase in Spanish electricity demand and estimates the infrastructure investment needs for the next decade.
The national electricity demand could increase by between 33% and 54% by 2030, ranging from 305.8 to 360.8 TWh, in line with the objectives of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). By 2035, cumulative growth could reach between 64% and 105%, with a range of up to 479.8 TWh. An increase in installed capacity of up to 312 GW is expected, with a significant role for the industrial sector and new energy demand hubs.
Marta Sánchez, partner responsible for Energy at EY Spain, emphasized that the growth of electricity demand is key to meeting the emission reduction targets set out in the PNIEC. Antonio Hernández García, partner of Regulated Sectors, Economic Analysis, and Sustainability in EY Consulting, explained that the increase in demand reflects not only technological evolution but also a profound transformation of the productive fabric.
The growth will be driven by the electrification of industrial processes with temperatures below 400º C, which could account for up to 129 TWh by 2035. The transformation of the residential segment, propelled by the installation of high-efficiency heat pumps and the expansion of electric vehicles, constitutes the second vector. The development of new demand vectors, such as green hydrogen, data centers, electrification of ports, desalination plants, and public charging infrastructure, could add more than 170 TWh by 2035.
The total estimated investment at the national level in the distribution network by 2030 should be between 4.586 and 6.313 million euros, depending on the electricity demand growth scenario considered. In the most conservative scenario, the investment needs arising from demand growth, digitalization, and asset replacement could be compatible with the expansion of the limits established in the draft Royal Decree published on September 12.
The report highlights that if barriers to industrial electrification are removed, the emission reduction targets of the PNIEC could be surpassed, achieving CO₂ reductions greater than 30%. The new vectors will represent more than 35% of the total increase in demand by 2035.
