The Department of Economy, Employment and Industry of the Government of Aragon has published this Friday the Quarterly Bulletin of Conjuncture number 83, which includes the analysis of the evolution of the international, Spanish and, especially, Aragonese economy during the third quarter of 2023. This document reflects the great dynamism of the labor market and also of Aragonese exports.
The recovery of the global economy after the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine continues to be slow and uneven, and divergences between economic areas tend to increase, particularly between the United States and the European Union.
During the first half of 2023, the global economy has performed better than expected, while high inflation rates were moderated by a base effect in energy prices.
However, in the second half of the year, a slowdown in the pace of economic activity is becoming progressively apparent, while food prices continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
This weakening is expected to continue in the coming quarters, so that forecasts for 2024 are being revised downwards for most countries.
The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, among other factors, due to doubts about China, given its weight in the world economy, or geopolitical tensions, where a new focus has appeared with the conflict in Israel.
Finally, it should be noted that in 2024 elections will be held in more than 70 countries, in several cases with potential geopolitical consequences that may transcend their domestic spheres. These include the presidential elections in the United States in November, the European Parliament elections in June and the legislative and presidential elections in Taiwan in January.
In this context, the Spanish and Aragonese economies are part of the general slowdown trend, but have grown at a good pace during the first three quarters of 2023, above the Eurozone average, with the support of a vigorous labor market, somewhat lower than average inflation rates and a dynamic export performance.
According to the estimates of the Aragonese Institute of Statistics (IAEST), based on data from Spain’s Quarterly National Accounts (QNA), Aragon’s GDP grew by 3.7% annually in the first quarter of the year, 2.3% annually in the second quarter and 1.9% annually in the third quarter, comfortably above the EMU average, which grew by 1.3% annually, 0.6% annually and 0.0% annually in the same quarters.
From the point of view of demand, this loss of momentum of the Aragonese economy in the third quarter of the year was due to a lower contribution to growth from both the foreign sector and domestic demand, where the acceleration of investment in capital goods could not compensate for the loss of steam in consumption and investment in construction.
On the supply side, industry and construction accelerated in the third quarter of 2023, while agriculture returned to positive territory and services slowed down.
In the labor market, employment in Aragón recorded increases of 1.3% per year in winter, 1.2% per year in spring and 2.2% per year in summer, placing the unemployment rate at 7.8% of the active population on average in the third quarter of the year, the lowest figure since the summer of 2008.
Inflation rates in Aragón were somewhat more contained than the national average, at 4.8% per year in the first quarter of the year and 2.3% per year in both the second and third quarters. Underlying inflation was above general inflation, at 5.7% per year on average in the third quarter, although somewhat lower than in Spain as a whole.
The partial indicators available for the fourth quarter of 2023 suggest that the Spanish and Aragonese economies will maintain a similar dynamism to that recorded in the summer, with certain signs of a loss of traction. Both economies have been showing remarkable resilience, particularly in comparison with the EMU, in an adverse environment dominated by monetary policy tightening and high geopolitical uncertainty.
This resilience would be supported by the relative strength of household consumption, which in turn relies on the good performance of the labor market, as well as the dynamism of goods exports.
Finally, the usual Sectoral Snapshot that accompanies the Quarterly Economic Bulletin, on this occasion, analyzes Aragon’s trade relations with Israel, the Palestinian Territories and the surrounding countries.
The Quarterly Economic Situation Bulletin can be consulted on the following web page:
https://www.aragon.es/-/boletin-trimestral-de-coyuntura
The Department of Economy, Employment and Industry of the Government of Aragon has published this Friday the Quarterly Economic Bulletin number 83, which includes the analysis of the evolution of the international, Spanish and, especially, Aragonese economy during the third quarter of 2023. This document reflects the great dynamism of the labor market and also of Aragonese exports.
The recovery of the global economy after the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine continues to be slow and uneven, and divergences between economic areas tend to increase, particularly between the United States and the European Union.
During the first half of 2023, the global economy has performed better than expected, while high inflation rates were moderated by a base effect in energy prices.
However, in the second half of the year, a slowdown in the pace of economic activity is becoming progressively apparent, while food prices continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
This weakening is expected to continue in the coming quarters, so that forecasts for 2024 are being revised downwards for most countries.
The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, among other factors, due to doubts about China, given its weight in the world economy, or geopolitical tensions, where a new focus has appeared with the conflict in Israel.
Finally, it should be noted that in 2024 elections will be held in more than 70 countries, in several cases with potential geopolitical consequences that may transcend their domestic spheres. These include the presidential elections in the United States in November, the European Parliament elections in June and the legislative and presidential elections in Taiwan in January.
In this context, the Spanish and Aragonese economies are part of the general slowdown trend, but have grown at a good pace during the first three quarters of 2023, above the Eurozone average, with the support of a vigorous labor market, somewhat lower than average inflation rates and a dynamic export performance.
According to the estimates of the Aragonese Institute of Statistics (IAEST), based on data from Spain’s Quarterly National Accounts (QNA), Aragon’s GDP grew by 3.7% annually in the first quarter of the year, 2.3% annually in the second quarter and 1.9% annually in the third quarter, comfortably above the EMU average, which grew by 1.3% annually, 0.6% annually and 0.0% annually in the same quarters.
From the point of view of demand, this loss of momentum of the Aragonese economy in the third quarter of the year was due to a lower contribution to growth from both the foreign sector and domestic demand, where the acceleration of investment in capital goods could not compensate for the loss of steam in consumption and investment in construction.
On the supply side, industry and construction accelerated in the third quarter of 2023, while agriculture returned to positive territory and services slowed down.
In the labor market, employment in Aragón recorded increases of 1.3% per year in winter, 1.2% per year in spring and 2.2% per year in summer, placing the unemployment rate at 7.8% of the active population on average in the third quarter of the year, the lowest figure since the summer of 2008.
Inflation rates in Aragón were somewhat more contained than the national average, at 4.8% per year in the first quarter of the year and 2.3% per year in both the second and third quarters. Underlying inflation was above general inflation, at 5.7% per year on average in the third quarter, although somewhat lower than in Spain as a whole.
The partial indicators available for the fourth quarter of 2023 suggest that the Spanish and Aragonese economies will maintain a similar dynamism to that recorded in the summer, with certain signs of a loss of traction. Both economies have been showing remarkable resilience, particularly in comparison with the EMU, in an adverse environment dominated by monetary policy tightening and high geopolitical uncertainty.
This resilience would be supported by the relative strength of household consumption, which in turn relies on the good performance of the labor market, as well as the dynamism of goods exports.
Finally, the usual Sectoral Snapshot that accompanies the Quarterly Economic Bulletin, on this occasion, analyzes Aragon’s trade relations with Israel, the Palestinian Territories and the surrounding countries.
The Quarterly Economic Situation Bulletin can be consulted on the following web page: https://www.aragon.es/-/boletin-trimestral-de-coyuntura
