Argentina returned to fiscal surplus in July after experiencing a deficit the previous month. The National Public Sector achieved a primary surplus of 2.96 trillion pesos and, after paying interest on the debt, maintained a financial surplus of 244.897 billion pesos, according to data released by the Ministry of Economy.
Year-on-year comparisons show a significant improvement. In July 2025, the primary surplus was approximately 1.75 trillion pesos, indicating a nominal increase of nearly 69% this year. The financial balance also shifted: a year ago, it ended with a deficit of 168.515 billion pesos after interest payments.
This result allows President Javier Milei’s government to uphold one of the pillars on which it has built its economic program since he took office in late 2023: to prevent the State from systematically spending more than it collects and to eliminate the need to finance the deficit through monetary expansion.
Seven months of positive accounts
The performance in July also partially offsets the result from June, when the National Public Sector recorded a primary deficit of 696.843 billion pesos and a financial deficit exceeding one trillion. The government attributed this monthly deterioration to the postponement of certain income tax payments to July and the seasonal increase in spending related to the payment of bonuses to retirees and pensioners.
The accumulated perspective thus offers a more representative picture than any isolated month. During the first seven months of 2026, Argentina recorded a primary surplus equivalent to approximately 0.9% of GDP and a financial surplus close to 0.1%. The latter indicator is particularly relevant as it includes interest payments on debt and allows for observing whether the State maintains balance once those obligations are met.
Fiscal discipline represents a significant shift from the previous trajectory of Argentina’s public accounts. In 2024, Milei’s first full fiscal year, the country managed to close with an annual financial surplus for the first time since 2010. In 2025, it again ended with a positive financial result, and the 2026 budget explicitly states that the fiscal year must be executed with balance or surplus.
Fiscal balance comes with costs and nuances
However, the evolution of public accounts does not, by itself, indicate that all of Argentina’s economic problems are resolved. The adjustments necessary to reduce the deficit have impacted various public expenditure items, while the evolution of fiscal revenues also depends on the level of economic activity and tax decisions made by the government.
Additionally, in July, the financial result was bolstered by income from property rents of public agencies. Some analyses of budget execution indicate that, excluding certain items of this nature, the monthly result would have been less favorable. This circumstance does not invalidate the official fiscal data but does suggest that its composition should be analyzed in addition to the final balance.
Recent developments also show that monthly balance can fluctuate considerably. June ended with a deficit, and July returned to surplus, partly because some tax revenues that are usually recorded in June were shifted to the following month.
Inflation remains another challenge
The fiscal adjustment has coincided with a significant reduction in inflation from the levels that Argentina experienced when Milei took office. However, the disinflation process has lost momentum.
In July 2026, prices rose by 2.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year inflation rate stood at 33.8%. These figures are much lower than those recorded during the inflation crisis of 2023 and 2024, but they indicate that reaching rates similar to those of other economies in the region will still require time.
The price evolution is particularly relevant as it influences household purchasing power, interest rates, credit, and investment decisions. It also affects public accounts themselves, as comparing nominal amounts in pesos across different years can provide a distorted picture in an economy that continues to experience high inflation.
From adjustment to an economy capable of growth
The next phase of Argentina’s economic program presents a different challenge than the initial months of Milei’s presidency. Achieving fiscal balance was a central condition for stabilizing an economy with accumulated inflation, deficit, and financing difficulties. Maintaining it while recovering investment, consumption, and employment is a distinct task.
Available economic analyses offer a mixed picture. Argentina has improved its fiscal accounts and substantially reduced inflation from previous peaks, while exports are helping maintain activity. At the same time, some indicators show an uneven recovery and a real economy that is still not advancing with the same strength as financial variables.
The International Monetary Fund supported the continuation of the program in May by approving a new disbursement of $1 billion under the $20 billion agreement signed with Argentina. The organization highlighted fiscal progress and approved reforms, although it also noted shortfalls in certain targets related to international reserves.
More than two and a half years after Milei took office at the Casa Rosada, public accounts show one of the clearest changes in the Argentine economy. The result from July confirms that the government continues to prioritize fiscal balance, but the sustainability of the program will be measured in a broader context: maintaining sound public accounts while reducing inflation and allowing macroeconomic improvements to more consistently reach activity, investment, and households.
